Trade Wars Fracture the Eurasian Economic Union

The most visible friction involves Armenia, where Moscow has deployed a series of trade barriers in response to Yerevan’s deepening ties with the European Union. In 2026, these tensions escalated beyond mere tariffs; Gazprom Armenia enforced a 10-day gas supply cutoff, and Russian National Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu issued an explicit warning. Shoigu stated that Moscow would not finance Armenia’s European pivot, signaling that further punitive measures remain on the table.

Simultaneously, the alliance is fracturing over automotive trade. Following Russia’s 2024 implementation of aggressive "recycling fees"—a protectionist measure Vladimir Putin defended as a boost for domestic industry—imports of Russian vehicles into Kazakhstan have effectively collapsed. Kazakh officials, led by Industry Minister Yersayin Nagaspayev, responded by introducing reciprocal fee structures in May, effectively initiating a tit-for-tat trade war.

This breakdown has extended to agricultural policy, with Kazakhstan banning apple imports from all foreign states, including its EAEU partners. Astana invoked Article 29 of the EAEU treaty to justify the move, citing national security, despite the treaty’s explicit prohibition against using such measures as disguised trade restrictions. These developments highlight a growing reality: the EAEU is increasingly failing to function as a cohesive economic block, serving instead as a theater for regional geopolitical brinkmanship.