Gold and silver retreat as Fed policy outweighs geopolitical friction

The shift in sentiment followed a recovery in U.S. equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 52,000. Investors grew optimistic that U.S.-Iran negotiations would resume, mitigating fears of a total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Although traffic through the waterway remains restricted—dropping to 22 crossings on Sunday—the market treated the situation as an impairment rather than a blockade. This allowed risk appetite to return, pushing the Nasdaq Composite up 2.1%.

Precious metals struggled to capitalize on the regional volatility because traders remained tethered to the latest FOMC projections. Following the June 17 decision to hold rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, the Fed raised its 2026 funds-rate outlook to 3.8% and PCE inflation projections to 3.6%. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.377%, while WTI crude settled at $70.75 a barrel. For gold, this combination of higher yields and inflation-sensitive oil prices acted as a stronger anchor than the fading haven bid. Spot gold recently traded near $4,015.60 an ounce, while silver hovered at $58.180, highlighting a market driven by rate-path repricing rather than defensive hedging.