Wednesday’s losses had pushed both benchmarks to their lowest settlements since August 31. Brent fell $8.98, or 8.7%, to $94.62, and WTI dropped $7.97, or 8.3%, to $88.12.
The selloff followed Democrats’ gains in both chambers of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Traders speculated that President Donald Trump would face greater pressure to end the eight-month conflict with Iran. Brent fell roughly 18% this week as expectations of a diplomatic settlement prompted traders to shed positions.
Those expectations weakened on Thursday. Eurasia Group cut its estimated probability of a negotiated agreement to 10% from 20%, and put the likelihood of renewed U.S. strikes at 60%. Iran is reviewing proposals delivered through regional mediators, but Washington and Tehran remain divided over the conditions for a deal.
Shipping risks also persist. Reuters reported at least five vessel incidents in the Persian Gulf since Sunday, with threats to commercial traffic continuing despite a recovery in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf crude exports have moved back toward pre-war levels, but transportation costs are higher and geopolitical risks remain unresolved.
Market participants cited by Bloomberg said heavy liquidation in crude futures amplified Wednesday’s decline. With prices nearing technically oversold territory, Thursday’s rebound may reflect traders reversing some of those positions.
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