IEEFA: $67.8 Billion in Asian LNG Projects Scrapped or Stalled

IEEFA’s five-year analysis covered $109.2 billion in proposed LNG-fired power projects and $21 billion in planned LNG import terminals in the four markets. It found that 49 power plants and 22 regasification terminals had been canceled or showed no notable progress between 2021 and 2026. Their estimated value is nearly 4.5 times that of projects completed over the same period, the institute said.

The report identifies volatile LNG prices, depreciation of Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar, long waits for gas turbines and higher capital costs as growing risks. These pressures have weakened the revenue certainty needed to finance projects, said Sam Reynolds, an IEEFA report co-author and the institute’s Asia LNG/Gas Research Lead. He said LNG expansion in the region had advanced far more slowly than the global gas industry expected.

Taken together, the risks could raise the levelized cost of electricity from LNG-fired power plants by up to 130% compared with baseline assumptions from 2021, said co-author Christopher Doleman, IEEFA Asia’s LNG/Gas Specialist. He added that energy plans relying heavily on LNG had often assumed lower fuel prices and affordable capital costs, assumptions that no longer hold.

A separate demand factor could bolster the outlook: Wood Mackenzie analysts said in September that Asia’s AI boom and data-center construction could significantly increase Southeast Asian LNG demand. They cited combined-cycle gas turbines as a reliable round-the-clock power source for hyperscalers, while renewable energy paired with batteries remains relatively immature across the region.