The administration’s move specifically targets the shale-rich area spanning Veracruz and Tamaulipas, citing environmental and social risks as the primary obstacles. While Sheinbaum campaigned on a platform critical of the environmental toll of fracking, the current energy landscape presents a difficult calculus. Mexico currently imports over 6.5 billion cubic feet of pipeline gas daily from the United States, which accounts for roughly 75% of its total domestic demand.
To address this, a government-appointed panel recently evaluated the role of unconventional resources in achieving energy independence. The commission concluded that the country should prioritize conventional gas production before considering any expansion into unconventional extraction. Even under optimistic projections, Mexico’s dependence on U.S. supply is expected to drop only to 50% by 2030. Pemex, the state oil company, struggles under a massive debt load and declining output, casting doubt on its ability to bridge the gap with conventional methods alone. As seven new power plants come online, the pressure on the national energy grid continues to mount, leaving the government to navigate a narrow path between securing fuel supplies and honoring its environmental commitments in the northern shale basins.

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