Gold and Silver Retreat as Fed Outlook Overshadows Geopolitical Tensions

The week ahead centers on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, a critical data point that will likely influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory before the July 4 holiday. Despite a slight dip in the U.S. dollar, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.4 basis points to 4.385%, signaling that investors remain braced for further tightening. Elevated oil prices—with Brent near $72.40 and WTI at $69.64 a barrel—are simultaneously fueling inflation concerns, effectively stripping gold of its traditional haven appeal.

Diplomacy in the Strait of Hormuz has shifted toward managed transit following an agreement to halt attacks and convene in Doha this Tuesday. However, the underlying dispute remains unresolved as the traffic coordination hotline remains inactive. Technically, gold bears are currently eyeing a break below the $3,950.00 support level, while silver bulls must reclaim the $60.00 threshold to reverse the current downward momentum.