Standard Chartered sees gold reaching $4,650 in Q4

Suki Cooper, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Commodities Research, said the market’s ability to stay above $4,000 after stronger-than-expected employment data suggests gold is becoming more resilient. Spot gold last traded at $4,031.80 an ounce, unchanged on the day. The bank identifies $4,200 as the next significant resistance level.

Cooper’s forecast puts gold at an average of $4,850 an ounce in the first quarter of 2027, following the expected fourth-quarter average of $4,650. The outlook comes as October’s U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.4%, above economists’ 0.3% forecast. Core inflation increased 0.3%, also more than expected. Some Federal Reserve officials have backed a possible 50-basis-point rate increase next month; Standard Chartered expects a 25-basis-point hike in December, followed by rates holding steady throughout 2027.

Cooper said midterm election results last week have contributed to a shift in gold’s market dynamics, with the metal showing signs of resuming its traditional role as a hedge against economic and political uncertainty. Gold’s correlation with equities has weakened, the bank said, suggesting investors are less inclined to sell bullion to cover losses elsewhere. Longer-term concerns include government debt, inflation and the economic implications of artificial intelligence spending.

Investment and official-sector buying have added support. Gold-backed exchange-traded products attracted 211 tonnes in the third quarter, their strongest quarterly performance since 2024, and added 19 tonnes in October despite market volatility. Central banks bought 321 tonnes in the third quarter, well above Standard Chartered’s estimate of 200 tonnes. The bank expects purchases to exceed its full-year forecast.