Asia Fuel Oil Margins Fall as Gulf Supply Improves

Fuel oil prices have softened in recent weeks as more product leaves the Gulf for Asian demand centers. Exports from Fujairah, in the United Arab Emirates outside the Persian Gulf, have increased, adding to supply pressure on regional benchmarks and refining margins.

UAE fuel exports bound for Singapore and Malaysia climbed to about 729,000 metric tons in October, an eight-month high, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Traders said high shipping costs are also curbing European fuel oil shipments to Asia.

The Dubai benchmark’s price curve has begun to indicate that rising Middle Eastern crude flows are outpacing demand for the first time since early July. At that time, a three-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire allowed millions of barrels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without hindrance.

Physical flows have risen gradually over the past two months as Gulf producers increased shuttle shipments through Hormuz, using ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman after tankers cleared the chokepoint. The November Dubai contract traded at the start of this week at about a $2-per-barrel discount to December, traders and brokers told Bloomberg on Tuesday. The contango structure is the first indication since July that Middle Eastern supply is currently abundant.