Global Diesel Shortage Expected to Persist Through 2027

Asia’s crude oil imports climbed to 26.39 million barrels per day in October, a significant recovery from the 19 million bpd low recorded in April. However, this surge in raw material availability has failed to translate into a corresponding increase in fuel supply. Imports of light and middle distillates remain 10% below pre-war levels, as the infrastructure required to process crude into usable fuel continues to struggle under the weight of geopolitical instability and reduced regional output.

The strain is particularly acute in the diesel market, which has faced a 700,000 bpd deficit in global exports during the first nine months of 2026. Analysts point to the volatility of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—where safety concerns have complicated ship-to-ship transfers—and the persistent impact of strikes on Russian refinery infrastructure as primary drivers of the disruption. With China’s export policies remaining opaque, the market lacks the necessary clarity to forecast a near-term recovery.

Looking ahead, the International Energy Agency and Morgan Stanley warn that relief remains distant. Many global refineries have pushed essential maintenance into the second quarter of 2027 to maximize current production. This backlog will trigger a period of downtime projected to be two and a half times larger than typical seasonal maintenance, effectively locking in supply constraints for the next two years. Without a swift restoration of Middle Eastern refining capacity, the market may face the difficult prospect of demand-side reductions to force a balance.