Copper Defies Market Gravity as Aluminium Sheds War Premiums

Copper remains the standout performer, with prices rising 16% year-to-date. Analysts have upgraded their 2026 forecast to $13,674 per ton, citing persistent uncertainty over U.S. tariff reviews and declining output from Chile, where production dropped 12.8% in August. Physical inventory dislocations further support elevated prices, as Comex inventories hit a record 790.4kt against a backdrop of tight supply and robust Chinese demand.

Conversely, aluminium has shed its geopolitical risk premium, with prices retreating to pre-conflict levels following a recovery in Middle East supply and surges in Chinese and Indonesian output. Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 aluminium forecast to $3,249 per ton, noting that smelter production in China has reached record utilization rates. Meanwhile, zinc forecasts were raised to $3,555 per ton due to anticipated supply underperformance, while nickel prices have softened to $17,055 per ton as promising HPAL project output and weak battery-sector demand weigh on the market.