Standard Chartered Lifts Long-Term Oil Price Forecasts

Brent crude for November delivery fell 1.5% to $103.72 per barrel on Tuesday, while WTI crude dropped 2.2% to $90.62. This pullback follows a significant export surge spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, which doubled its output to 5.4 million barrels per day after restoring the East-West pipeline. However, analysts at Standard Chartered argue that supply buffers remain critically thin, leaving the market highly sensitive to further instability in the region.

Under the new projections, the bank lifted its 2026 Brent forecast to $92.00 per barrel and its 2027 outlook to $89.50. The bank notes that global energy systems are prioritizing larger inventories and supply chain diversification, a transition that increases costs and establishes a higher long-term price floor. Meanwhile, the Trump administration faces internal pressure to address record-high diesel prices. While calls for an export ban persist, officials like Energy Secretary Chris Wright warn that such measures could trigger broader supply shortages in gasoline and jet fuel, potentially undermining Gulf Coast refining operations.

In Europe, energy markets remain disconnected from Brussels' warnings. EU Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has pushed for reduced demand and increased gas storage, yet European natural gas futures fell to €69.30 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday. Analysts suggest this price drop reflects weaker Chinese LNG demand, though the region remains vulnerable to winter supply risks regardless of current storage targets.