Gold rallies as rate-hike anxiety fades

The precious metal navigated a volatile week, surging to a 10-week high of $4,450.23 per ounce on Thursday before a sharp pullback driven by softening wholesale inflation data. Despite this brief retreat, gold found its footing after Friday’s retail sales report showed an unexpected 0.6% decline, reinforcing the belief that the central bank will likely hold rates steady at its September meeting.

Market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming FOMC minutes, which could provide critical insight into the Fed's internal debate over persistent inflation and economic cooling. While some analysts, such as StoneX Group’s Daniel Pavilonis, suggest the market remains range-bound and in need of a significant geopolitical catalyst to break toward new all-time highs, others see clear signs of a sustained upward trend. Bannockburn Global Forex’s Marc Chandler pointed to the 200-day moving average near $4,503 as the next major hurdle for the metal to clear.

Sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, with 90% of analysts in the latest Kitco News survey expecting further gains. Retail investors mirror this optimism, with nearly two-thirds maintaining a bullish outlook. As the market digests the interplay between record deficits and currency valuation, the focus shifts to how the Fed will balance its dual mandate in the shadow of slowing private-sector activity.