Sucden Financial Predicts Rangebound Gold Through Third Quarter

The firm’s latest quarterly report suggests that the geopolitical risk premium, which drove prices higher earlier this year, has not yet fully dissipated. Consequently, gold is expected to consolidate between $3,950 and $4,300 per ounce through late September. While dips toward the lower bound are likely to trigger buying interest, gains exceeding $4,200 will remain difficult to sustain until the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish monetary stance.

Sticky inflation remains the primary hurdle, forcing central banks to maintain restrictive policies that increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Despite these headwinds, Sucden maintains a positive long-term outlook. Structural support—fueled by consistent central bank buying, sovereign debt concerns, and ongoing reserve diversification—prevents the current correction from signaling the end of the bull market.

Silver faces a more volatile path, burdened by the dual pressures of monetary policy and softening industrial demand. With manufacturing activity cooling, the brokerage expects silver to trade within a $56–$66 per ounce range. While it remains a useful portfolio diversifier, the metal lacks a clear trend and remains highly sensitive to shifts in both investment sentiment and global industrial output.