India’s Path to Becoming a Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Powerhouse

While the global aviation industry struggles to meet net-zero targets—with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production currently accounting for a mere 0.6% of total consumption—India’s emerging Power-and-Biomass-to-Liquids (PBtL) sector offers a viable path forward. A joint study by IECC at UC Berkeley and Energy Innovation suggests this strategy could evolve into a $9 billion export industry by 2030, eventually scaling to $30 billion by 2040.

The economic advantage stems from the integration of green hydrogen, the price of which has dropped significantly in India due to abundant solar power, falling from $4.67/kg in mid-2025 to $3.23/kg by early 2026. By combining this hydrogen with agricultural waste—traditionally burned by farmers—the PBtL process captures carbon that would otherwise be lost, effectively doubling the fuel yield compared to conventional biomass methods. This drop-in fuel is fully compatible with existing aircraft, requiring no changes to current airport infrastructure.

Domestic policy is moving in lockstep with these technical gains. New Delhi has implemented a 5% SAF blending mandate by 2030 and established a 100 billion rupee price stabilization fund to shield carriers like IndiGo and Air India from market volatility. Private investment is already following the regulatory signals, exemplified by California-based Aemetis, which is eyeing an IPO for its Indian subsidiary to expand its production capacity. By converting agricultural waste into a high-value export, India is not only positioning itself as a leader in the energy transition but also creating a sustainable income stream for its rural communities.