The volatility follows a weekend of targeted attacks on commercial shipping near the strategic chokepoint, which handles roughly 20% of global oil consumption. Beyond the immediate price hike, the administration has proposed a 20% transit fee on cargoes receiving U.S. naval protection. The International Maritime Organization quickly dismissed the plan, noting that international law provides no basis for such mandatory tolls, while energy firms maintain that the freedom of navigation is non-negotiable.
While physical oil supplies remain currently intact, the market is aggressively pricing in the threat of future bottlenecks. Tanker operators are already factoring in elevated war-risk insurance premiums and complex security logistics for Gulf transits. These concerns have rippled into refined fuel markets, where diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline prices are strengthening in anticipation of higher transportation costs. Even without a total halt in exports, the prospect of prolonged tanker delays is tightening prompt availability, keeping global energy prices under severe upward pressure.

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