Precious metals retreat as Gulf tensions flare and silver demand wanes

Gold prices retreated toward the $4,000 mark following an abrupt end to the tentative ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. The hostility intensified on July 6 when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted commercial shipping, triggering retaliatory U.S. strikes and subsequent Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. Although oil prices rallied in response, the cooling of energy markets suggests traders expect a return to the slow-moving negotiations that characterized the prior months.

Central banks continue to provide a floor for gold, with significant institutional accumulation reported in May. Poland and China led the buying, with the National Bank of Poland adding 18 tonnes to its reserves, officially surpassing the Netherlands as the world's tenth-largest holder. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China increased its holdings by 15 tonnes in June, marking twenty consecutive months of purchases. In contrast, physical silver demand has cratered. The Perth Mint reported a 19% decline in silver coin and bar sales for June, as investors shun the metal following a 22% price drop throughout the month. Long-term production capacity remains a factor, however, with the Sierra Gorda joint venture expected to boost annual output by 1.7 million ounces by 2031.