Gold Stalls Above $4,100 as Geopolitical Risk Meets Yield Pressure

Gold’s recent rebound hit a ceiling this week, failing to sustain momentum above the $4,180 to $4,200 range. Despite a cooling labor market—highlighted by a June payroll gain of only 57,000—the 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated at 4.55%. This environment leaves bullion caught between the appeal of a safe-haven asset and the burden of high real rates, which discourage non-yielding holdings.

Silver faces similar headwinds, finishing the session near $59.81 after failing to hold the $60.00 threshold. The metal remains trapped below the $61.00 to $62.00 resistance band, reflecting a broader bearish technical bias. Markets are now pivoting toward next week’s CPI data and congressional testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which will be critical in determining whether investors prioritize inflation-driven hedging or yield-based caution.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a central narrative. Although shipping continues, the combination of unclaimed strikes and Iranian threats to impose transit fees maintains an inflation-risk premium on global oil prices. While this uncertainty provides a floor for gold, traders remain wary that any further escalation could force a sharper reaction in energy markets, further complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward.