U.S. Short-Term Rental Market Stabilizes as Supply Growth Stalls

The shift in the market stems largely from macroeconomic pressure. Bram Gallagher, Director of Economics and Forecasting at AirDNA, noted that renewed inflation and an energy shock linked to the war in Iran pushed mortgage rates back above 6%, effectively stalling the influx of new investor properties. Consequently, RevPAR is projected to rise 2.9%, a sharp recovery from the 0.7% growth seen in January.

While national metrics remain healthy, the landscape is uneven. Travelers are opting for shorter trips and smaller booking windows, favoring larger homes that provide group value. International travel demand to the U.S. has softened, with Canadian bookings dropping 32% below 2024 levels. Domestically, the FIFA World Cup is acting as a localized catalyst for pricing power in host cities. Investors looking for entry points are shifting focus toward smaller, rural, and mid-sized markets where supply growth remains active, contrasting with tightening conditions in major hubs like San Francisco and Philadelphia.