Natixis Maintains $4,600 Gold Forecast Amid Central Bank Buying

Dahdah argues that the current market pullback, which has seen prices slide toward $4,100, offers a buying opportunity rather than a signal of weakening fundamentals. He resists adjusting his outlook based on short-term volatility, insisting that the next phase of the gold bull market will rely on institutional demand rather than speculative trading. As energy markets stabilize following the Iran-U.S. conflict, he expects central banks to aggressively replenish reserves they previously monetized to support domestic currencies.

The shift in central bank strategy reflects a growing skepticism toward U.S. assets. Dahdah suggests the U.S. has lost its long-held status as the ultimate guarantor of international financial stability, prompting global reserve managers to seek the security of gold. Recent experience proved that bullion serves as more than a passive store of value; many nations successfully utilized swap arrangements to access liquidity during the crisis while retaining ownership of their metal.

Looking ahead, consistent buying from China and renewed official-sector activity are expected to establish progressively higher price floors for the precious metal. While he does not anticipate a single record-breaking year for total purchases due to a slow first quarter, Dahdah believes the marginal, incremental increase in gold holdings by central banks will provide the necessary momentum to sustain his $4,600 target by year-end.