Gold and Silver Surge as Weak Jobs Data Cools Fed Hike Bets

Nonfarm payrolls grew by only 57,000 in June, failing to meet the 115,000 consensus estimate. Compounding the cooling sentiment, combined downward revisions for April and May totaled 74,000 positions. While the 4.2% unemployment rate suggests the labor market retains some resilience, the data was sufficient to pull the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.465%. Market participants have subsequently pushed their projections for further monetary tightening from October toward December.

Beyond domestic economic indicators, maritime tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist in a state of uneasy stabilization. Daily vessel traffic has hovered between 30 and 60 crossings, averaging 40 this week, though the legal authority to govern the waterway remains a point of contention between Iranian officials and U.S. forces. With U.S. markets preparing for the July 4 holiday, analysts warn that thin liquidity could exacerbate volatility in gold, silver, and the dollar index before the next major inflation print on July 14.