Société Générale tempers central bank gold demand expectations

While the World Gold Council’s latest survey highlights a robust appetite for gold among official sector institutions, the bank’s analysts argue that long-term intentions often decouple from short-term reality. By analyzing data over a six-month window rather than a full year, the firm expects central banks to acquire between 100 and 120 tonnes of gold for the remainder of 2024. This projection represents a significant acceleration from the first four months of the year and finds support in recent London Bullion Market Association vault data and UK export figures, which show China continuing to dominate physical inflows.

Despite this expected uptick, investment demand remains tethered to macroeconomic conditions. With 10-year US real yields projected to stay above 2% through the third quarter, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets remains high. Analysts maintain a neutral outlook for the summer months, noting that a more constructive environment for gold will likely emerge only as interest rate pressures begin to subside toward the end of the year.