Gold Recovers as Markets Absorb Fed Rate Projections

The latest inflation data provided a measure of relief for investors, as May PCE rose 0.4% monthly—slightly below the 0.5% forecast. While the figure matched the annual consensus, it did little to alter the Federal Reserve’s hawkish trajectory. Markets remain recalibrated following the June 17 FOMC meeting, where officials signaled a move away from 2026 rate cuts toward the possibility of a year-end hike. This shift has pressured gold and silver by elevating real-rate expectations.

Simultaneously, the geopolitical landscape in the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from acute crisis to a normalization test. Brent crude prices have retreated to $72.24 a barrel as tanker traffic through the waterway doubled over the last 24 hours. The resumption of vessel transit with active satellite signals has eroded the immediate safe-haven bid for bullion, though the underlying political volatility suggests the geopolitical-risk premium has not fully evaporated. Technically, gold bulls must clear the $4,023 to $4,090 resistance zone to regain momentum, while bears eye a break below $3,900 to initiate a deeper correction.