Iraq Weighs OPEC Exit to Counter Economic Collapse

Petroleum sales account for 90% of Iraq’s state revenue, leaving the nation uniquely vulnerable to the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With exports from Basra stalled at the world's most vital maritime chokepoint, the federal government is evaluating whether to ignore existing OPEC quotas to compensate for massive production losses incurred since the onset of the regional conflict.

Any definitive move remains contingent on the diplomatic outcomes of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s upcoming visit to Washington in mid-next month. While Baghdad calculates the potential for a global price drop caused by increased supply, officials recognize that abandoning the cartel would represent a significant rupture, exceeding the geopolitical impact of the United Arab Emirates’ departure in May 2026. For now, the country remains caught between the rigid constraints of its OPEC commitments and the reality of a collapsing domestic economy.