Wall Street Turns Bearish as Gold Slides Below $3,900

The metal began the week at $4,066.39 an ounce and rose to a high of $4,148.95 on Monday, helped by lower oil prices, a weaker dollar and renewed U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts. The rally reversed after October consumer prices rose 0.4%, above expectations, and core inflation also surprised to the upside. Gold fell below $4,000 on Wednesday and reached a weekly low of $3,852.10 on Thursday. It recovered modestly on Friday after October producer-price data showed moderation, ending the session near flat.

Among 13 Wall Street analysts surveyed, two (15%) expected prices to rise in the week ahead, 10 (62%) predicted a further drop and one group of three (23%) expected prices to trade sideways or said they could not predict the direction. In Kitco’s online poll, 67 of 160 retail respondents (42%) anticipated gains, 60 (38%) expected a decline and 33 (21%) forecast consolidation.

Analysts differed on whether the sell-off has further to run. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex said gold had fallen about 4.5% and warned that a significant low might not yet be in place, with a further $100 decline as his next technical target. Daniel Pavilonis of StoneX Group said the market could test the 200-week moving average near $3,200 an ounce, while Jesse Colombo identified a support zone around $3,900 in COMEX futures. If that level breaks decisively, Colombo said, gold could fall toward $3,500; he cited a stronger dollar and rising interest rates as key pressures.

The week ahead brings U.S. retail sales, pending home sales, jobless claims, manufacturing surveys and the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes. Traders will also watch the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Kitco’s report said the minutes and incoming data could shape expectations for the Fed’s December decision, with markets weighing a quarter-point increase against the possibility of a half-point move.