Abu Dhabi Talks Secure Prisoner Deal, but Peace Remains Elusive

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in Dublin on November 11 that the exchange could involve as many as 1,000 or up to 1,200 people on both sides. He reiterated Kyiv’s preference for an all-for-all swap and questioned why “thousands more” should remain in captivity. Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said significant differences persisted after the talks. Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky, according to Russian state media, ruled out territorial exchanges as part of a settlement. Zelenskyy also said Moscow rejected a Ukrainian proposal for an energy cease-fire, saying its delegation lacked a mandate to discuss it.

US officials called the negotiations tough but productive, while acknowledging the lack of trust between Kyiv and Moscow. One American negotiator said they had sensed “a little bit of flexibility” in private conversations, without providing details. A senior US official said Washington planned to proceed “one step at a time” and cautioned that postwar security arrangements could not be implemented before agreement on territorial and other bilateral issues. Paul Saunders, president and CEO of the Center for the National Interest and a former senior State Department adviser, called the progress largely symbolic, saying the sides had not moved materially closer to an agreement acceptable to all.

Experts offered differing views on Moscow’s reasons for negotiating. Saunders said President Vladimir Putin may believe Russia can prevail in a war of attrition, while talks help Moscow demonstrate willingness to engage and keep the Trump administration invested in a peace process. Former US Ambassador to the OSCE James Gilmore suggested Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure and economic pressure could be prompting the Kremlin to seek a diplomatic gain. Both assessments point to the difficulty of reconciling Russia’s demands with Ukraine’s need to protect its sovereignty and guard against renewed aggression.

Washington also wants to broaden discussions to include Europe’s security arrangements, potentially bringing European governments into a process from which they have largely been excluded. Britain, France, Germany, NATO and the European Commission were not part of the core trilateral talks, though European representatives attended on the sidelines. Zelenskyy has argued that Europe must be represented in decisions about European security. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said his contacts indicated the United States, Ukraine and Europe were “completely aligned and united,” while stressing that Russia must show it is genuinely prepared to engage.

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were due to travel to Moscow on November 12 to meet Putin, then go to Dublin for talks with Zelenskyy, who was visiting Ireland. The meetings will test whether Washington can turn diplomacy into concrete proposals. Zelenskyy said Ukraine needed “very concrete answers” on security guarantees and that much depended on the United States: Kyiv was “not seeking security guarantees from Russia, but from the United States.”