Argentina Could Lead Chile in Lithium Output by 2035

The proposed Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes mine could produce up to 150,000 tons of lithium annually once operational. Lithium Argentina is developing the project with Chinese mining company Ganfeng Lithium. Investment is estimated at $3 billion, across three phases, and the companies were seeking a third partner, Mining.com reported earlier this year.

GEM Mining Consulting has warned that if the project does not proceed, Argentina’s output could fall in the coming years. Argentina is currently the world’s fourth-largest lithium producer, behind Australia, China and Chile. It is part of the Andean Lithium Triangle, which also includes Chile and Bolivia and is known for its substantial reserves.

The consultancy expects Australia to produce 921,100 tons of lithium in 2030 and 966,400 tons in 2035. China’s output is forecast at 615,700 tons in 2030, rising to 618,700 tons in 2035. Both countries are expected to expand production, unlike Argentina in the scenario where the project stalls.

Demand growth is tied chiefly to electric vehicles and battery storage. Batteries help balance electricity grids with substantial wind and solar generation by storing surplus power for later use. The war between the United States and Israel, and Iran has also sharpened attention on energy security and dependence on imported fuels, while renewed supply of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf could test plans to accelerate electrification.

EVs have driven lithium demand for about a decade, particularly over the past five years. With China, the largest EV market, becoming saturated, demand elsewhere will be important to sustaining investment in new and existing lithium projects, including Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes. Recent lithium price crashes have added uncertainty, as actual demand has fallen short of some forecasts.