Global Fossil CO2 Emissions Forecast to Fall 0.4% in 2026

The forecast, published Tuesday, points to a 1.9% drop in emissions from oil, which researchers described as a likely short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the conflict. Natural-gas emissions are expected to fall 0.3%. Coal emissions, by contrast, are projected to rise 0.6% from last year.

The report links the coal increase to disruption in liquefied natural gas trade through the Strait of Hormuz and higher energy prices. Countries, particularly in Asia, are making up for reduced LNG supplies with more coal-fired power generation, the researchers said.

The Global Carbon Project cautioned that the forecast decline does not mean fossil-fuel emissions have reached their peak. “A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change,” said Glen Peters, research professor at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.

Solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles are pushing emissions lower in dozens of countries and slowing their growth in many others, Peters said. But the pace of change remains insufficient to secure a lasting peak in global emissions, the researchers warned. The report was released a day after the two-week COP31 climate summit opened in Antalya, Turkey, where UN leaders urged governments to accelerate climate mitigation efforts.