Weyer: Fed and Trump still hold sway over gold and the dollar

Weyer, Walsh Trading’s co-director of commercial hedging, said traders would have to wait for the Fed’s next move. He said market participants often seek to interpret each new data point or political shift quickly, while the central bank tends to assess developments gradually. After the Fed’s last meeting, some market watchers expected action in December, while others thought a decision might be pushed to March next year. In Weyer’s view, the election had not changed that debate.

The vote could still affect the dollar, with consequences for gold, but Weyer said the executive branch remained unchanged and Trump’s decisions would matter. He pointed to tariffs as one issue with potential effects on the dollar, and said Trump could pursue a face-saving agreement with Iran or continue the conflict. The president could also support some Democratic spending priorities rather than use his veto, Weyer said, adding that spending was likely to continue in different forms.

Weyer expects gold and silver to retain safe-haven appeal over the next two years, citing uncertainty about what Trump might do. He also described the metals as a speculative market. In the near term, he sees a path of least resistance higher for gold and said the $3,900 and $4,000 levels could attract buyers, including those who had left the market and wanted to return. He cautioned that these levels were not necessarily a firm foundation.

Returning to prices reached before may be easier than setting new highs, Weyer said, because markets have already traded at those levels. He noted that gold had been substantially higher recently, making a move back toward previous prices more achievable in his view.