Hormuz Oil Flows Face Long-Term Stagnation Despite Potential Deal

While crude exports from Persian Gulf producers climbed to an average of 12 million barrels per day between September and late October, the recovery remains brittle. Analysts led by Jorge León emphasize that a comprehensive settlement requires untangling the Iranian nuclear program, regional proxy conflicts, and maritime security—a diplomatic hurdle unlikely to be cleared in the coming year.

The security environment in the Strait has worsened even as volumes tick upward. Recent weeks have seen an uptick in tanker attacks, overshadowing the modest gains in transit flow. With the looming threat of military escalation following U.S. political shifts, the market remains highly sensitive to regional volatility. Crude prices recently rebounded following reports of potential strikes near Qeshm Island, signaling that the corridor remains a flashpoint rather than a reliable, normalized trade route.