Sucden Financial warns of year-end gold and silver price retreat

The investment firm anticipates gold will test the $3,900 level before the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting. While the market currently assigns an 80% probability to a rate hike, Sucden expects a stabilization period to begin in early 2027. By mid-January, analysts project a recovery for gold toward the $4,200 to $4,300 range, contingent on a cooling of oil prices and a stabilization of Treasury yields.

Silver faces a more precarious outlook, with analysts forecasting a drop to between $50 and $53 an ounce. Unlike gold, which benefits from robust central bank and ETF accumulation, silver is suffering from a sharp contraction in industrial demand. According to the World Silver Survey 2026, silver fabrication is slated to fall 3% this year, largely due to a 19% decline in the solar sector as manufacturers shift toward copper-based technologies.

Geopolitical instability in the Middle East has complicated the macro environment, as elevated oil prices push inflation higher and limit the central bank's capacity to pivot. Although global gold-backed ETF holdings remain near record levels of 101 million ounces, speculative interest has waned, leaving the market sensitive to hawkish policy shifts. For silver, the recovery path remains tied to a potential short-covering rally, though analysts caution that sustained growth requires a definitive conclusion to the current monetary tightening cycle.