Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Threaten Global Food Security

The S&P Global Institute warns that the energy crisis is evolving into a systemic threat to food production. Fertilizer inputs—including ammonia, urea, and natural gas—depend on the stability of the Gulf route. When shipping traffic effectively halted on February 28, fertilizer prices doubled, creating an immediate strain on the monocropping systems used to grow corn, wheat, and rice. Even as the waterway sees limited movement, the region remains volatile, and experts suggest that natural gas production will require years to recover to pre-conflict levels.

The International Monetary Fund projects that fertilizer costs will rise by 10 percent by year-end, driving a cascading increase in food prices through 2027. Low-income nations, where households spend roughly half their earnings on food, face the most acute risk. Historically, food price shocks often act as a catalyst for civil unrest, mirroring the conditions that preceded the Arab Spring. As geopolitical tensions persist, the combination of energy scarcity and rising hunger creates a feedback loop that could destabilize regions already strained by conflict.