Gold Stalls as Oil Volatility and Fed Rate Expectations Dominate

The U.S. housing sector showed fresh signs of strain as September housing starts fell 5.2% to an annual rate of 1.221 million units. This decline, paired with a record slump in pending home sales, highlights the deepening impact of elevated interest rates on the broader economy. Despite these weak indicators, the appetite for non-yielding bullion remains muted. Traders continue to prioritize interest-bearing assets, seemingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will maintain its aggressive stance through December, even if they opt for a tactical pause at the upcoming October meeting.

Geopolitical friction remains a primary engine of market volatility. Crude oil prices briefly surged toward five-month highs following attacks on Gulf vessels before retreating on reports of potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks. Although no formal breakthrough has been confirmed, the mere prospect of de-escalation provided enough relief to lift equity markets and temper inflation fears. For precious metals, the lack of sustained safe-haven demand suggests that the market is currently more sensitive to the shifting interplay between energy prices and the central bank's tightening cycle than to immediate geopolitical risk.