Gold Edges Higher as Markets Brace for U.S. Inflation Data

The 10-year Treasury yield softened to 5.19% as bond trading resumed following Monday’s holiday, while the dollar index pulled back to 102.3 from recent highs. This shift provided immediate relief for bullion, though market participants remain cautious. Recent economic signals are mixed: September payrolls grew by a modest 29,000, yet consumer sentiment has dipped and inflation expectations have climbed to 4.7%. Traders are currently balancing a low probability of an October rate hike against a more aggressive outlook for December.

Energy markets are also influencing the precious metals landscape. Brent crude fell to $104.63 and WTI to $91.85 as traders weighed Russian diesel supply against persistent security risks in the Strait of Hormuz. While lower oil prices typically dampen inflation concerns, the ongoing Houthi-Saudi tensions and shipping disruptions keep a risk premium embedded in the broader market. Technical analysis suggests gold bulls must clear resistance at $4,217.15 to sustain upward momentum, while a break below $4,155.31 would signal a shift in control toward the bears as the week's upcoming data tests the market's resolve.