AI Infrastructure Fuels Record Growth in Global Trade

Global goods trade accelerated in the first half of 2026 at a pace unmatched in the last 15 years, excluding the post-pandemic recovery. This surge is largely anchored in the demand for AI-enabling hardware, with semiconductors and data-transmission equipment accounting for 76% of trade growth in the first quarter of 2026. John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, noted that the necessity of logistics in supporting complex AI supply chains has kept global networks moving despite geopolitical friction.

While the conflict in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted specific regional routes, the broader economic fallout remained contained. Similarly, although U.S. tariffs reached multi-decade highs, their global impact was mitigated by limited U.S. import exposure and a lack of widespread international retaliation. Consequently, globalization reached a record 25.8% in 2025. Projections now suggest global goods trade will expand by 3.4% annually through 2029, outperforming the previous decade's average of 2.7%. East Asia and the Pacific led this expansion with a 24% increase in trade value during early 2026, bolstered by regional supply chains specialized in AI production.

Despite a sharp reduction in direct U.S.–China ties, the data suggests the global economy is not fracturing into isolated blocs. U.S. allies have largely preserved their economic links with China, and when accounting for indirect imports via third-party countries, American reliance on Chinese components has diminished only marginally. This resilience underscores a trend where companies continue to prioritize global market access while navigating localized policy shifts.