Gold Stalls as Treasury Yields Hit 16-Year Highs

The broader market sentiment remains caught in a tug-of-war between resilient U.S. growth and stubborn inflation. Data released this week showed non-defense capital goods orders jumping 1.6%, a figure buoyed by sustained AI-related investment. However, consumer sentiment cooled to 48.1, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%. With Fed funds futures pricing in a 68.6% probability of a rate increase next month, the momentum for bullion faces a significant hurdle.

Energy markets provided a brief respite for equities, as Brent crude settled at $104.32 and WTI at $92.41 following reports of potential de-escalation regarding the Strait of Hormuz. While lower oil prices typically ease the inflation impulse that fuels Treasury yields, the market remains wary of unresolved supply risks. Investors are now turning their attention to next week’s personal income and PCE inflation reports, which will serve as a critical test for whether the recent selloff has adequately accounted for the current tightening cycle.