European Gas Prices Rally as Hormuz Standoff Persists

The front-month contract at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) held steady at $84.30 per megawatt-hour by mid-morning, tempering an earlier spike. While prices retreated from this month’s peak of $93—the highest level since January 2023—the volatility underscores the fragility of the continent’s energy transition away from Russian pipeline gas.

Fitch Ratings recently lifted its price assumptions for the TTF, citing the ongoing regional conflict. Analysts noted that the Strait of Hormuz historically accounts for 20% of global LNG supply. Currently, EU storage sites are only two-thirds full, trailing significantly behind the 80% to 90% levels recorded during the previous three years. Although indirect talks between Washington and Tehran resumed on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, negotiators have yet to report a breakthrough. Limited volumes from Qatar and the UAE continue to reach markets, yet these small quantities fail to offset the broader supply contraction driving competition across Europe and Asia.