China’s Crude Buying Spree Pushes Oil Prices Toward $100

The Brent-Shanghai crude spread, which sat at a negative $20 in late April, has flipped to a premium, marking a definitive end to the period of subdued Chinese consumption that previously kept global prices in check. China is now bidding up prices across Latin America and Canada to compensate for the loss of Iranian barrels, which have been largely squeezed out by the current US blockade. This pivot has intensified competition for available crude, hitting smaller Chinese 'teapot' refineries particularly hard as their traditional access to discounted supplies remains severed.

Recent market data shows Congo’s Djeno crude trading at a $20 premium over ICE Brent, a sharp increase from previous weeks. While seaborne imports currently trend toward 10 million barrels per day, the race to restock commercial inventories is driving this momentum. GL Consulting founder Liao Na notes that improved refinery margins are the primary catalyst for the buying spree, rather than a broad resurgence in underlying economic demand. Goldman Sachs energy expert Daan Struyven warns that should shipping disruptions in the Middle East escalate, Brent could rally toward $120, advising investors to hedge against further geopolitical shocks by shifting focus to natural gas and diesel markets.