The Hidden Drivers of the Global Mineral Rush

An analysis from the Oakland Institute reveals that the remaining 74% of demand stems from conventional sectors, including construction, defense, industrial machinery, and electronics. Stainless-steel production alone consumes roughly two-thirds of the world’s nickel, while the construction sector accounts for 30% of global copper usage. These figures challenge the narrative that a massive, unavoidable expansion in mining is strictly the price of decarbonization.

Even as the IEA projects a massive surge in electric vehicle adoption—from 11 million in 2020 to nearly 2 billion by 2050—industry experts argue that the scale of this growth is not set in stone. Research from the University of California, Davis, indicates that shifting toward smaller batteries, reducing vehicle ownership, and maximizing recycling could slash lithium demand by up to 92% by 2050. Despite these potential efficiencies, the current U.S. policy agenda remains heavily focused on aggressive production increases. Driven by national security, AI development, and competition with China, the administration continues to prioritize mineral stockpiling and financing, often overlooking the potential for demand-side reductions or the significant impact on Indigenous and peasant lands, where over half of current and prospective mining projects are located.