Swiss National Bank Warns AI May Drive Short-Term Inflation

Tschudin, speaking to the newspaper Finanz und Wirtschaft, highlighted that redirected investment flows and hardware shortages—specifically in the semiconductor sector—could force prices upward. Although productivity improvements typically act as a deflationary force, she cautioned against assuming that AI-driven efficiency will automatically lower inflation. Productivity gains are a historical constant, yet they rarely lead an economy into a state of structural deflation.

This perspective aligns with recent warnings from IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro, who noted that AI-driven productivity might not necessarily translate into lower consumer prices. For the Swiss National Bank, the current inflation forecast, which remains within the 0% to 2% target range through 2029, is strictly conditional. Tschudin emphasized that this projection assumes stable interest rates and does not preclude future adjustments. If incoming data suggests a shift in the inflationary environment, the bank will pivot its policy accordingly, as these forecasts are tools for analysis rather than a commitment to a static interest rate path.