China’s Crude Imports Face Price Hurdles Despite Recovery Outlook

Analysts from Rystad Energy, Energy Aspects, and FGE NexantECA anticipate fourth-quarter import rates reaching 9.9 million barrels daily. This figure remains well below the 12 to 13 million barrels per day peaks recorded last year. The hesitation stems largely from the country's massive existing stockpile, which has ballooned by over 1 billion barrels throughout the last two years, dampening the urgency for aggressive new purchases.

Supply chains are also undergoing a fundamental shift. As traditional flows of medium sour crude from the Middle East remain disrupted, Chinese refineries are pivoting toward alternative suppliers in Africa and South America. This transition is further complicated by geopolitical maneuvering in the energy sector. According to Kpler data, China is recalibrating its import mix, replacing diminished Iranian volumes—now estimated at 340,000 barrels daily for August—with Russian crude. Projections suggest Russian imports will reach 1.25 million barrels per day, a slight dip from July’s 1.42 million but still a cornerstone of the nation’s current supply strategy.