China Diverts Russian Oil Flows, Leaving India Facing Supply Shortfalls

Seaborne imports of Russian crude into China reached 1.25 million barrels per day in August, according to Kpler data. While this represents a slight dip from July, China is increasingly sourcing oil from Russia's European ports—a region that traditionally supplied the Indian market. These shipments are expected to comprise 31% of China’s total Russian imports this month, up from 22% in June.

India has felt the immediate impact of this competition. Its Russian imports fell to 1.87 million barrels per day in August, a significant decline from the 2.79 million reported in July. Total crude imports for India hit 4.17 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East. The disruption ripples further downstream, as India relies on these specific crudes to maintain its output of diesel and gasoline. With current refining feedstocks tightening, the country's ability to sustain its 1.29 million barrels per day in fuel exports may face a critical test by September.