Middle East Tensions Send Airline Profit Forecasts Into Tailspin

United, American, and Southwest Airlines all reported significant fuel cost headwinds during second-quarter earnings calls. For these carriers, fuel represents the second-largest operational expense after labor, making them exceptionally sensitive to geopolitical disruptions near oil chokepoints. United Airlines disclosed it now anticipates nearly $6 billion in additional fuel expenses for 2026 compared to initial year-start projections. To buffer against further instability, the company recently secured $3.7 billion in new liquidity.

American Airlines faced a sharper reality check. Despite achieving the highest quarterly revenue in its history at $16.7 billion, the carrier slashed its financial outlook. CFO Devon May noted that fuel cost expectations ballooned by $700 million for the third quarter alone since the start of July. Consequently, American now forecasts a potential loss for the upcoming quarter, falling well below previous analyst consensus figures. Southwest Airlines similarly reported a $900 million year-over-year jump in fuel expenses, forcing management to stop providing firm fuel guidance and instead rely on fluid, day-to-day market curves.