U.S. Pension Funds See Best Funding Levels Since 2009

The latest Equable Institute report reveals a significant rebound for retirement systems across all 50 states and D.C. With the national funded status climbing 3.9 percentage points from 2025, 45 states have managed to improve their standing, and seven have reached full funding. This progress is largely fueled by average investment returns of 9.4%, comfortably outpacing the 6.9% target.

Despite the improved balance sheets, the structural foundation of these funds remains precarious. Employers are currently paying a record 31.83 cents of every payroll dollar into pension plans—a figure triple the 2001 rate—yet only a fraction of that amount covers new benefits. Executive director Anthony Randazzo warns that the current stability relies heavily on the accuracy of private equity and real estate valuations, which now account for over 27% of pension assets.

Furthermore, the sector has developed a dangerous uniformity. By concentrating investments into a narrow basket of artificial intelligence-related companies, pension funds have created a systemic vulnerability. Equable estimates that between $513 billion and $642 billion of public money is exposed to the A.I. sector. Because these funds hold increasingly similar portfolios, a broad market correction could simultaneously erode the gains achieved over the last four years.