Bank of America signals further gold correction despite long-term optimism

Paul Ciana, a technical analyst at Bank of America, expects the downward pressure to persist through August and September. He notes that the current 24-week correction is disproportionately short compared to the preceding 121-week rally. A "death cross" observed on June 26, 2026, at $4,088.74—where the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day average—historically signals lower prices for 40 to 50 trading days in roughly 70% of cases.

Ciana suggests that investors should prepare for a potential test of support near $3,600. He advises a strategy of averaging down, recommending modest accumulation below $4,000, with more aggressive positioning in the $3,700 to $3,600 range and final allocations between $3,450 and $3,250. Although the bank recently downgraded its 2026 average price forecast by 14% to $4,360, it remains bullish on a $6,000 target by 2027.

Beyond bullion, the bank’s equity analysts highlight the mining sector's robust financial health. Gold miner free cash flow is currently 10 times higher than in 2020, bolstered by lower debt loads. With earnings yields at 12.0%, miners are trading at their most attractive valuations relative to the S&P 500 in two decades, positioning the sector as a standout for value-oriented portfolios.