Colombia’s Shrinking Energy Reserves Point Toward Economic Crisis

The decline in hydrocarbons is accelerating as the country’s output hits multiyear lows. In April 2026, oil production fell to 724,910 barrels per day, while natural gas output dropped to 694 million cubic feet daily—a 36 percent decrease from a decade ago. While the productive life of oil reserves saw a marginal increase, it stems solely from falling production rates rather than successful exploration. The Llanos Basin remains the industry’s anchor, with the Rubiales field producing nearly double the volume of the Castilla field this year, yet even these core assets cannot offset the broader systemic contraction.

This energy squeeze arrives at a precarious moment for Colombia’s power grid. With 65 percent of electricity generated by hydroelectric plants, the country remains hostage to the El Niño weather phenomenon. Expected droughts in late 2026 threaten to force a reliance on gas-fired thermal plants, exacerbating the need for imports at a time when domestic supply is vanishing. Costs are already climbing, with liquefied natural gas imports set to cover a quarter of national consumption by the end of 2026, fueling inflation and straining the balance of payments.

Critics point to the administration of Gustavo Petro, whose policies—including a moratorium on new exploration contracts, increased taxation, and attempts to ban fracking—have chilled investor sentiment. Major players like Exxon have already exited the market, citing both regulatory uncertainty and regional instability. Whether president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, scheduled to take office on August 7, 2026, can reverse this trend through fiscal and regulatory reform remains the central question for an industry currently in retreat.