The directive follows a week of diplomatic meetings in Qatar intended to solidify an interim peace agreement. While negotiators suggest progress, the cooling of tensions remains fragile. The current reality on the water contradicts the market’s optimistic narrative of a return to normalcy. Although shipping activity has risen from the depths of the conflict, current transit volumes of 30 to 60 vessels per day remain a fraction of the 130 daily crossings recorded before hostilities began.
At the heart of the standoff lies a fundamental disagreement over maritime sovereignty. The existing 60-day interim agreement permits toll-free passage, yet Iran continues to assert its right to dictate navigation routes and impose future transit fees. Washington and Gulf Arab states maintain their firm rejection of these claims. Oil traders, who recently drove Brent crude prices lower on expectations of a swift restoration of supply chains, now face renewed volatility as the reality of a contested waterway persists.
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