Goldman Sachs Predicts Oil Surplus Despite Inventory Rebuilds

Strategic petroleum reserves currently sit at multi-decade lows following an aggressive release of stockpiles in March, a direct response to the Persian Gulf crisis that paralyzed critical energy corridors. In the United States, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to levels not seen since 1983, while storage at the WTI delivery hub in Cushing faces acute operational stress. As nations across the Asia-Pacific region prioritize energy security by expanding reserve capacity, this surge in demand will provide a temporary floor for oil prices.

However, the anticipated return of consistent flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the primary driver of the bearish outlook. Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, noted that while global SPR replenishment will account for roughly 1 million barrels per day, the market will still face a surplus of approximately 2 million barrels daily. This assessment aligns with broader shifts on Wall Street, where institutions like Morgan Stanley have already reduced price forecasts in anticipation of a supply-heavy 2027.