Oil Markets Ignore Reality as Strait of Hormuz Stagnates

ING commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey warn that the assumption of a smooth recovery in tanker traffic is premature. Data shows total crossings on Tuesday hovered around 11, a stark drop from the 24 recorded just last week. While Morgan Stanley reported a brief spike to 35 crossings earlier, those figures have not translated into a sustained return to pre-war operational levels.

Geopolitical friction remains high despite the market's calm. Iranian officials explicitly rejected meetings with U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff in Doha, insisting that existing ceasefire terms must be solidified before addressing broader issues like nuclear proliferation. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed no high-level talks are scheduled. With reports that President Trump is weighing a return to full-scale conflict, the current pricing of oil—with Brent at $73.17 and West Texas Intermediate at $69.71—reflects a market that has effectively stripped out all geopolitical risk, ignoring the volatile reality of the region.