Precious metals diverge as labor data fuels rate-hike expectations

The latest JOLTS report revealed 7.594 million job openings for May, surpassing the anticipated 7.3 million. This data point pushed the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.469%, tightening the constraints on non-yielding assets like gold. While bullion remains above the critical $4,000 support level, it struggles to clear the resistance required to establish a sustained recovery. Silver, meanwhile, has found support in a narrowing gold-silver ratio, showing greater momentum in the current session.

Market participants continue to digest the FOMC’s recent decision to hold the target rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. Projections for 2026 have shifted, with the median funds-rate path climbing to 3.8% and inflation expectations rising to 3.6%. Beyond monetary policy, energy markets remain a secondary pressure point; although oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have normalized, the potential for supply-chain volatility persists. Crude prices remain below recent peaks, with WTI trading at $70.03 and Brent at $73.45, leaving gold with a diminished "insurance bid" as the focus remains squarely on how energy costs will influence future inflation prints and central bank maneuvering.